A first approach to consider the information of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the operation of the electrical system of Uruguay

Résumé

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an intraseasonal oscillation (30-90 days) in the tropical atmosphere that influences climate patterns in different regions. For example, in Southeastern South America, the MJO impacts rainfall, especially during the austral summer, with phases that favor extreme rainfall in Uruguay and southern Brazil, affecting the inflows to Uruguay's hydroelectric reservoirs. The importance of the MJO lies in its predictability up to five weeks in advance, allowing for the anticipation of its effects. This study compares the country's optimal energy programming by considering and not considering the oscillation's effects. Possible scenarios are simulated, and the optimal energy programming is calculated. In half of the scenarios, MJO information is considered, while in the other half, it is not. Results indicate that including historical MJO information affects diesel consumption. In particular, when the oscillation is considered, the El Niño phase shows less extreme behavior and lower variability than when it is not considered.